Crisis in the Pot: Twelve Years Later

Crisis in the Pot: Twelve Years Later

In the late 70s and early 80s, when the SBC was still growing, conservatives claimed that a Conservative Resurgence and an expulsion of “moderates” would not only avoid a presumed decline but that an “evangelical harvest” would follow (the SBC leadership was to blame). In 1995, Thomas Ascol noted some disturbing underpinnings and raised the issue of a possible decline (Troubling Waters of Baptism) but incorrectly said Southern Baptists needed to adopt more conservative theology (the SBC seminaries and agencies were to blame). Thom Rainer claimed a crisis in 2005 but was defensive and at pains to try and prove it wasn’t the Conservative Resurgence that caused the problem (the SBC pastors and churches were to blame). On May 27, 2005, I wrote an article rejecting all of the previous theories about the decline, refuting the idea that the problem was principally a matter of doctrinal fidelity. I also predicted that the next level of blame would be that of individual Southern Baptists in the pews. Twelve years later …

The reason for the decline is there in the data. It was there 12 years ago, 22 years ago, 35 years ago, and it’s there today. I think Thom Rainer knows. The truth was on the edge of his report in 2005 and then on subsequent reports since.

Really, you can look at the data of a nation, a denomination, a church, and even an individual ministry, and not only identify growth patterns but determine the cause. However, the truth can be awkward.